Probabilistic Equity Intelligence — Screen. Stress-Test. Prove It.
Monte Carlo–ranked universe, daily trade setups, AI market intelligence, 13F hedge-fund flows, Scenario Lab, and print-ready thesis reports. Quantified odds end to end—with a full audit trail, not opinions.
Trusted by advisers and thoughtful investors who want explainable, testable research.
The capability stack
You don't trade on vibes. You need odds, context, and evidence you can defend.
Each block below exists for a reason—ranking opportunity and risk, turning trend into actionable setups, reading the market with AI, monitoring what matters, following institutional flow, stress-testing your views, proving outcomes against a benchmark, and handing clients research they can stand behind.
Stocks & model portfolio
- Merkapital Confidence Score™ and 15,000-path Monte Carlo on a ~1,200-name universe
- Model portfolio + watchlist simulator, quick filters, CSV export, Track snapshot
- Per-name Scenario Lab, My Thesis, news context, institutional holdings
Daily Trade Ideas
- Setups when Merkapital Trend™ turns bullish — entry, stop, targets, risk/reward
- Options legs with bid/ask, OI, greeks; AI-optimized structures when tagged
- Pick any date; links straight into the stock detail view
Track Record
- Locked model or watchlist portfolios vs SPY — no trading after snapshot
- Equity curve, alpha, Sharpe, drawdowns; overlay multiple snapshots
- Per-position attribution; close a name when you need a realized outcome
Scenario Log
- Every saved Scenario Lab run — EPS, forward P/E, implied fair value
- Reason tags (news tone, macro, earnings risk); reopen in one click
- Export CSV for review or compliance
Market Intelligence
- Multi-source feed with tone, conviction, and saved articles / custom feeds
- Thesis ideas, Thesis Plan wizard, Ask AI with citations
- Emerging trends dashboard + innovation radar
Intelligence Hub
- Portfolio dashboard — sentiment, headline velocity, risk flags
- Earnings transcript search; AI competitive maps with revenue context
- Alerts + thesis tracker with evidence scan; 13F fund flows per symbol
Hedge Funds (13F)
- Top managers, 5-star ratings, latest filings, style-based pick lists
- Fund screener and full 13F portfolio with position changes
- Merkapital scores on tickers; news context alongside filings
Thesis research reports
- Print/PDF-ready equity notes from saved Thesis Plans
- Narrative, overview metrics, Scenario Lab snapshot, options context
- Personal library of reports per account
Included elsewhere in the app
Choose your workflow
Four entry points — same probabilistic engine and audit trail underneath.
Research names
Screen ~1,200+ names, Merkapital Model Portfolio, watchlists, and per-stock Monte Carlo with factor detail.
Trade setups
When Merkapital Trend™ turns bullish: stock levels plus options structures (AI-optimized where available).
Monitor & contextualize
Curated news, Ask AI, trends, innovation radar — plus Hub alerts, transcripts, competitive maps, and 13F flows.
Prove & document
Lock model or watchlist portfolios vs SPY, export Scenario Log, print portfolio and thesis research reports.
Stop guessing with price targets.
Distributions and probabilities before you size a position.
Understand risk with numbers.
Downside tails, Sharpe, and factor attribution — not vibes.
Test and defend every thesis.
Scenario Lab, logs, and client-ready reports from the same system.
Today's model portfolio snapshot
Top-ranked equal-weight portfolio — refreshed with the same engine as the Stocks dashboard.
Highest-probability opportunities from the current universe — not opinions or static price targets.
Built for how you invest
Self-directed investors
Clear signals and full distributions — see which names score highest and why factors matter.
Financial advisors
Defensible narratives: portfolio reports, thesis research PDFs, and Scenario Log exports for files.
Analysts & PMs
Hub monitoring, 13F flows, transcripts, competitive maps — alongside the same quantitative core.
Performance transparency
Locked snapshots — model or watchlist — vs SPY total return. No trading in or out after you save.
“Merkapital's conviction scores replaced my gut calls with defensible odds.”
See cumulative performance, drawdowns, and alpha vs the benchmark on demand.
View Track Record →Why These Stocks Rank
Six research-backed factors. Backtested. Academically validated.
Six research-backed factors combine into a 0–100 Merkapital Confidence Score™. 15,000 simulations per stock produce probability distributions, not point estimates.
Why trust these factors? Backtested efficacy across decades of data. Academic validation from Fama-French, Jegadeesh-Titman, and peer-reviewed research. Probabilistic superiority over heuristics — full return distributions instead of single price targets.
Reports & documentation
Advisor-ready portfolio analytics and per-name thesis notes — print or PDF from the browser.
Portfolio report
Factor attribution, Monte Carlo context, equal-weight rationale — for client meetings and compliance files.
- ✓ Factor attribution & simulation summary
- ✓ Print-ready layout
Thesis research reports
Equity notes generated from saved Thesis Plans: narrative, metrics, scenario lab snapshot, and options context.
- ✓ Library of saved reports per account
- ✓ Institutional-style sections for print/PDF
“The Merkapital report helps me justify allocations to clients.”
Start free — no credit card required.
Open the platform and today's highest-probability ideas in one session.